Forget Greece - inflation is the long term concern, says Cazenove CIO 02/07/2015 While markets are focused on the fall-out – or otherwise – from Greece exiting the Eurozone, Richard Jeffrey believes that a greater long-term risk may be inflation. Cazenove’s chief investment officer suggests that inflation remains the one risk poorly factored into market prices, and yet with the Eurozone in recovery, some pick up in inflation is likely.
So where is the next Black Swan? 01/07/2015 The financial media, along with analysts and spokespeople employed by wealth and investment management firms have cranked up the volume of noise over the past week or so concerning the latest developments in the ongoing tragedy that is Greece (see, for example, thewealthnet 30/06/2015 and 29/06/2015). As is so often the case, however, noise, which typically has low or zero informational content can often obliterate genuine signals that have high information content.
Beware of journalists bearing forecasts 24/06/2015 It often seems that the number of economic, financial and wealth management forecasts is increasing at an exponential rate, especially at this time of year. Rarely a day goes by without at least half a dozen analysts’, economists’ or media companies’ forecasts landing in the email inbox. June is an especially busy month. In addition to a plethora of investment outlooks for the second half of the year June normally marks the peak of the publication of global wealth reports, replete with forecasts about the future growth of the richerati and their assets.
Grexit and US interest rate hikes: What a yawn! 23/06/2015 Rumours that a deal is imminent between Greece and its creditors gave global stock markets a significant and welcome boost on 21 June and helped to recoup some of the losses sustained over the past month.
UBS roundtable: central banks and Brexits 12/06/2015 UBS's global chief investment officer, Mark Haefele, UHNW chief investment officer Simon Smiles, and the head of UBS' UK Investment Office, Bill O’Neill, all participated in a roundtable discussion that examined the economic, investment and market outlook. They discussed the trends they are watching out for as the market moves into the second half of the year.
Investment managers uncertain over bond proxies 20/05/2015 Although attention has been focused on the volatility in the bond market, the impact has been felt in the equity market as well. Particularly vulnerable appear to be the so-called ‘bond proxies’ previously valued for the stability of their earnings and dividends, but which now look extremely expensive relative to the wider market. Could it be an inflection point for these stocks?