Brexit: the never-ending story 25/02/2016 Following David Cameron’s return from Brussels, armed with a European Union deal, debate about Britain’s EU membership has reached fever pitch this week. Despite a boost for the “Leavers” as Boris Johnson declared his support for Brexit, we believe that the Prime Minister's support for remaining in the EU will be the deciding factor in this referendum, as a majority of undecided voters are likely to follow his recommendation of remaining in the EU.
In our view, there is a 30percent probability of Brexit, so we therefore anticipate a vote to remain come 24 June. But this is unlikely to be the end of the story. Even if Britain votes to Remain, the implications of a re-negotiated position in Europe will be extensive. The current situation could well evolve into a “neverendum”.