Remember when, back in May, UBS Wealth Management predicted that Germany was going to win the World Cup. Running 10,000 simulations it thought Germany had a 24 percent chance of winning, tipping Brazil 19.8 percent, Spain 16.1 percent and, in fourth place England at 8.5 percent.
Well, Germany has now crashed out of the tournament. But UBS is not finished yet! Italy was given a 1.6 percent chance of winning despite not qualifying back in November 2017, which is worrying considering this is also the method UBS analysts use to pick stocks.
Like any good soccer manager, Martin Blessing, UBS co president for global wealth management, was quick to blame someone else, in this case his global chief investment officer for the debacle.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results and "it seems the model didn’t take into account the ‘curse’ that the previous World Cup Champion does not usually advance to the knock-out stage in the next World Cup,” he said.